Has Peak Oil Come To The Non Opec World Maybe

Forbes has a look at peak oil production in the non OPEC world - Has Peak Oil Come To The Non-Opec World? Maybe..

The world’s biggest oil companies put in a pretty pathetic performance in the second quarter of 2011. Not in terms of earnings — those were great, with Exxon posting $10.7 billion and Royal Dutch Shell doing $8 billion. Just what you’d expect with Brent crude at a lofty $120 a barrel.



Where the results were disappointing was in the barrels. Of the 16 big U.S. and European oil companies studied by Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey, 14 of them saw their production of petroleum decline in the quarter. Collectively, the drop amounted to 12% of total liquids volumes, or 1.2 million bpd. Their average output for the quarter totalled, 14.67 million bpd. Even excluding the effect of Libya’s issues, the decline was 8%.



Only Exxon and Shell managed 1% volume gains in liquids.



The situation didn’t get much better when Sankey looked at other big non-OPEC producers. Brazil’s supposed growth engine Petrobras was down a touch, as were Russia’s Lukoil and TNK-BP and China’s Sinopec. Rosneft (2.2 million bpd) and PetroChina (2.4 million bpd) did eke out gains of 2% and 4%.



Overall, the producers of 31 million bpd (out of a worldwide total of roughly 86 million bpd) saw their output fall 4%. No wonder Sankey titled his report “The Death of Non-OPEC.”



OPEC volumes, by contrast, were up 2% in the quarter, figures Sankey.



So what’s going on? Is Peak Oil here, at least in the non-OPEC part of the world? Maybe so. “In identifying mega-themes, we have argued that the shift from the 20th to 21st century represents the end of the oil age and the beginning of the global electricity age,” writes Sankey. “The concentration of remaining (abundant) oil reserves into OPEC hands derives an obvious corollary: the end of growth from non-OPEC supply.”



The supermajors are finding it harder and harder to pry away the remaining megaprojects from state-run oil companies. Of the biggest OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and Iraq, only the latter is eager to bring in the majors to help develop reserves.



Add in the fact that natural decline rates on big fields average 5% a year, and it will become ever harder for Big Oil to stay big. Christophe de Margerie, the pragmatic chief executive of French giant Total, believes that global peak oil will hit within five years (see my story on Total: “High Friends In Low Places”).