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Santos bid lights up coal seam gas sector

The SMH reports that the new carbon tax is accelerating interest in coal seam gas, with Santos moving to acquire the rest of Eastern Star Gas - Carbon tax not the end of fossil fuels, just ask Santos.

HYDROCARBONS have been copping some bad press lately.

What with all the flak over emissions and how best to reduce them, you could be forgiven for thinking the end of the industry is nigh. But the past few days has seen a flurry of takeover activity, starting last Monday with Peabodys $4.7 billion bid for Macarthur Coal and ending the week with BHP Billitons $14 billion tilt for American gas producer Petrohawk.

Then, before the market even opened yesterday, Santos jumped in with an agreed mop-up of pubescent coal seam gas outfit Eastern Star Gas, valuing the group at just shy of $1 billion. At a nominal 90¢ a share, the deal delivers Eastern Star shareholders a whopping 51 per cent premium to last Fridays closing price.

Rather than spelling the death knell for fossil fuels, it would appear the carbon price arrangements announced last week have partially eliminated the uncertainty that has caused energy and power companies to continually delay long-term investment decisions.

BHPs expansion of its American energy portfolio obviously falls outside the Australian carbon tax proposal but gives a clear indication the mining giant sees a future in lower emissions energy sources as carbon pricing becomes a global inevitability.

It was BHPs chief executive Marius Kloppers who last year reignited calls for carbon pricing while power suppliers like Origin Energys Grant King have roundly criticised the inordinate length of time it has taken successive Australian governments to implement a carbon pricing policy.
It takes up to eight years to get a power station from the drawing board to the paddock and in the policy vacuum that has existed here for most of the past decade, operators like Origin have been unable to decide whether to build old-style, low-tech operations belching out coal fumes or something a little more modern.

That has left a worrying dearth of investment in power generation, particularly in the eastern states.

It therefore is no coincidence that the junior partner in Santoss latest coal seam gas expansion is the Hong Kong-based TRUenergy which, along with Origin, snapped up the NSW state government-owned electricity distribution companies last year. TRUenergy also owns the Yallourn brown-coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley, one of the worlds dirtiest.

Under the terms of the friendly deal announced yesterday, Eastern Star Gas shareholders will swap their shares for Santos scrip, giving the Adelaide-based oil and gas group full control. But a second leg of the deal will see Santos emerge with 80 per cent of Eastern Stars gas permits with TRUenergy accounting for the remaining 20 per cent.

Eastern Star has extensive reserves in the Gunnedah Basin but, as a corporate minnow, was always constrained by a lack of capital in developing the resource. Crunch time was approaching, either to joint venture with a much bigger partner for a smaller slice of the future, or merge. ....

Santos will now have a major presence in every eastern Australian onshore gas basin from Moomba in South Australia near the Queensland border to the giant fields of the Bowen and Surat basins inland from Gladstone and in the Otway basin in Victoria.

Just how and where it will ship the gas from the Gunnedah Basin has yet to be decided. It may decide to pipe it up to its new $18 billion Gladstone liquefied natural gas plant, currently under construction. Or it could opt for another port facility at Newcastle.

The SMH has another article looking at the supposedly tight east coast gas supply once the CSG LNG terminals are operational - Santos bid lights up coal seam gas sector.

The $730 million bid by Santos for NSW coal seam gas (CSG) group Eastern Star Gas was a welcome relief from the investor gloom that has characterised the CSG sector in the last 12 months.

Share prices of the CSG companies not yet swept up by the big boys of the industry, with their gas export plans, are popping again, regardless of the on-going environmental campaign against the industry.

Investors are again playing a who-is-next game, driving up CSG share prices across the board. Bow Energy and Metgasco have led the pack, with Dart Energy and Comet Ridge also receiving some new attention.

Julia Gillard has also helped fuel the renewed interest in the CSG sector, with the proposed carbon tax set to drive a shift away from coal-fired power generation to gas-fired power with its 60 per cent lower emissions

But the reality is that with or without the Santos bid and the carbon tax, the CSG sector was due for a return of investor interest on the simple premise that Australia’s eastern seaboard faces a gas shortage, one in which domestic gas prices will have to about double to pull back gas that would otherwise head offshore to higher priced markets.

It is a theme that Morgan Stanley zeroed in on in the wake of the Gillard minority government unveiling its carbon tax plan on July 10. “The era of cheap and plentiful gas in eastern Australia is over,’’ the broker declared. ‘’Steady demand growth and depletion of historical conventional production is leading to a shortage evident after 2014, with CSG and other unconventional gas required to meet the gap.’’

The broker said that it was generally accepted that the carbon tax would increase the use of gas as a ``transition’’ fuel for power generation.

Assume that will increase demand for gas, and a case can be built that annual eastern state gas demand is set to grow from around 720 petajoules in 2011 to more than 1350 petajoules by 2020.

But there isn’t enough gas to meet that sort of growth. Morgan Stanley reckons that existing conventional gas supply (mainly Bass Strait and the Cooper Basin) will be largely depleted within 10 years.

The build-up in CSG resources was meant to flood the market. But there isn’t enough of that either as the multiple gas export projects being built at Gladstone in Queensland will soak it all up to chase the much higher export prices.

Morgan Stanley says the end result of all that is obvious – domestic gas prices are ``likely to escalate sharply to divert high-cost unconventional gas earmarked for export markets back to the domestic market’’.

``We believe this will take effect after 2014 as existing long term contracts wind down and need to be replaced. A gap-up to export parity (about $7.50 a gigajoule) is the likely first step,’’ Morgan Stanley said.

That means those that own gas resources on the eastern seaboard are heading towards a golden era. It also means that we have not seen anything yet in home energy bill shocks.

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Saudi Arabia did not make up for lost Libyan oil production

Stuart at Early Warning has a post on global oil production in the wake of the Libyan crisis (see the original for lots more graphs) - Saudi Arabia did not make up for Libyan Oil.

The OPEC MOMR came out late yesterday, but it adds to the picture from the IEA report mentioned yesterday morning. In particular, I can now present revised graphs for total liquid fuel production. Heres the last three year view (not zero scaled):

Note that the rise thats been going in since last fall has now been abruptly interrupted by the Libyan situation, and total oil production has fallen by about 0.5mbd. This is about 0.6% of global production, but given that the world economy has been growing rapidly and needing about another 0.5mbd/month, the shortfall over what would have happened in a counterfactual world with no Middle Eastern unrest is more like 1.2% of global production.

In terms of the price production picture, this has put us much more into territory akin to the 2005-2008 oil shock:

We can put the situation almost entirely down to two things: the fact that Libyan production has plummeted, and that Saudi Arabia has made no significant move to compensate. In fact, Saudi Arabia slowed down production increases that it had been making in prior months. First, heres all the Libyan data currently available:

So the world has abruptly lost something like 1.3mbd of oil production between mid February and March. Now there were a lot of news reports in the business press at the time this was first happening that Saudi Arabia was going to make up the difference. ...

Now that the stats are out, we can see that this was total bull. Will that fact be all over the business press? My bet is youll have to read some obscure blog called Early Warning to find out what really happened. First off, heres all the Saudi production data I have (not zero scaled to better show changes):

Indeed Saudi production has increased to around 9mbd, but the timing makes it clear this has nothing to do with Libya. For better comparison, I have put both the Libyan and Saudi averages on the same graph (only since 2005), with the scales adjusted to allow easy comparison. In particular, note that the size of the units on both scales is the same, so similar vertical moves in both curves mean the same amount of oil, but the Saudi scale (left hand scale) has been shifted to put the Saudi curve next to the Libyan one (right scale):

I have circled the March data in each case. You can see what was going on. The Saudis were slowly increasing their production from last fall through February, presumably in response to growing global demand and rising prices. But then, in March, when Libyan production went into freefall, they put on the brakes and did almost nothing to make up for the shortage.

The burning question is: why? Back in 2006, when their production started to gradually decline from 9.5mbd even as global oil prices were in the worst spike since the 1970s, I was an advocate of the view that the decline was largely involuntary: theyd never produced more than 9.5mbd, theyd underinvested for decades, and some of their big fields were getting very tired (particular northern Ghawar and Abqaiq) and they were starting a big rash of new projects and ramping up their rig counts at the same time.

I see current events differently. The reduction in late 2008 was clearly voluntary to support prices in the face of the great recession. Theres no new projects announced, and the rig count hasnt taken off. So my take is that the failure to increase production to compensate for Libya is deliberate. We can only speculate, but my guess is that, having watched how the west has helped to ease Mubarak and Ben-Ali out of power and is intervening in Libya to the same end, the Saudi regime is in no mood to care about our desire for more oil. Instead, they are very much in the mood to build as large a war chest as possible with which to appease their own population, strengthen their defense measures, etc.

So, instead of Saudi production increasing to compensate for Libya, total world production decreased, and oil prices went up sharply to enforce the necessary conservation on the worlds oil consumers. ...

So, heres the latest data on the discount of the three Saudi grades of oil, to Brent (with a seven week moving average applied to reduce noise):

You can see that these discounts have actually fallen sharply in recent weeks to levels usually seen only in the depths of recessions when the Saudis are trying to raise prices. So rather than trying to flood the market with their oil to help supplies post Libya, the Saudis are ramping back and extracting every dollar they can get.

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Solar Power Craze on Wall St Propels Start Up

The NYT has an article on booming solar power companies like SolarCity - Solar Power Craze on Wall St. Propels Start-Up.

The first inklings of the idea came to Elon Musk and a cousin in an R.V. heading to the Burning Man festival in 2004.

Solar energy, they agreed, could be big.

But not even Mr. Musk, the billionaire behind the Tesla electric car, could have foreseen the solar power craze that is sweeping Wall Street. He and his cousins Peter and Lyndon Rive are riding a wave of exuberance over the industry and their young business, SolarCity.

The company — the nation’s largest provider of rooftop solar systems, with more than 80,000 customers — has not made a dime. And, frankly, no one quite seems to know when, or if, it will.

But SolarCity has captured investors’ imaginations and become a potent symbol of a stock market ascent that makes the vertigo-inducing heights of Twitter seem tame. SolarCity’s share price, which closed at $59.27 on Friday, has soared more than sevenfold since it went public, and the company, which did not exist eight years ago, is valued at roughly $4.9 billion.

Depending on whom you talk to, the rise of SolarCity and similar companies is either a sure sign that solar power is finally having its day or that yet another mania has gripped the markets. Two other companies, SunPower and SunEdison, have also exploded in value. In all, an estimated $13 billion was invested in solar projects in 2013, a tenfold increase since 2007, according to GTM Research, which tracks the industry.

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Bubbling Up Geothermal Sees Big Global Growth

While geothermal power remains a relatively niche source of renewable energy, it is still a piece of the puzzle. EarthTechling reports that global production is set to double over the next few years - Bubbling Up: Geothermal Sees Big Global Growth.

Global geothermal power capacity could be on its way toward doubling, according to a new industry report, as projects unfold around the world, with a number of countries closing in on putting their first geothermal power stations to work.

The Geothermal Energy Association, in its 2013 Geothermal Power: International Market Overview, said seventy countries are moving forward with nearly seven hundred projects. The group said that as of August this year, 11,765 megawatts of geothermal capacity were online – and 11,776 MW of new capacity were in the early stages of development or under construction.

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Geothermal power heats up with newfound certainty

The Age reports the new carbon tax has increased interest in geothermal power companies - Geothermal power heats up with newfound certainty.

SCIENTISTS estimate there is enough energy stored in hot rocks beneath Australias surface to meet its power demands millions of times over, but bold prognostications have not been enough for the geothermal industry.

Kevin Rudds abandonment of Labors first proposed emissions trading scheme hit the industry hard, with share prices plummeting and investors baulking. "That policy backflip has hurt the industry, no doubt," says Terry Kallis, managing director of South Australian company geothermal Petratherm. Hot rocks power remains a highly speculative industry, but things are slowly looking up for Petratherm.

Last month, it began fracturing rock four kilometres beneath the Earths surface in the North Flinders Ranges using part of a $7 million federal government drilling grant — the key step in proving a geothermal reservoir can be created deep underground and the project has a future. Mr Kallis said he believes his is the only company with an active hot rocks project.
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Yesterday Petrotherms shares leapt 16 per cent, reaching a high of 23.5¢ before closing at 19¢. It is a far cry from its high of 92¢, but is an important reflection of the role the carbon price package — and a new $10 billion clean energy finance corporation, largely paid for with carbon tax revenue — could play in developing the industry.

"It has put us back on track, which is very important," Mr Kallis says.

"Every geothermal project will take a bit longer and cost a bit more because of the policy backflips that we have had, and we all rely on the equity market, which was hit with the financial crisis. [But] having a carbon price out there starts to create an investor framework and gives the industry some certainty — something we havent had."

Changes in government policy is not the only thing that has held up geothermal investment. Projects take a long time to get off the ground and the costs are considerable with no guarantee of success.

Petratherms project involves injecting water into rocks deep beneath the ground at high pressure in an attempt to create fractures. If successful, power will ultimately be generated by steam and hot water rising from a well and running a generator at the surface.

Petratherm has no short-term need for the new funding — it hopes to access an existing $63 million demonstration stage grant later this year. But Mr Kallis says the seed funding available from the corporation could prove valuable for the industry if well run.

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India’s first tidal energy plant coming up in Gujarat

The Weekend Leader has an update on a proposed tidal power plant in India - India’s first tidal energy plant coming up in Gujarat.

The Gujarat government is all set to develop India’s first tidal energy plant. The state government has approved Rs 25 crore for setting up the 50 MW plant at the Gulf of Kutch. It will produce energy from the ocean tides.

The state government signed a MoU with Atlantis Resource Corporation last year to develop the plant.

According to an estimate, India has a potential of 8,000 MW of tidal energy “The proposal was approved in this year’s budget session,” says Rajkumar Raisinghani, senior executive with Gujarat Power Corporation Limited (GPCL).

Atlantis Resource Corporation is a UK-based developer of tidal current turbines. “The equipment has been imported and work will start anytime soon. We are awaiting Coastal Regulation Zone clearance from Ministry of Environment and Forests, which is expected soon,” adds Raisinghani.

According to the GPCL officials, if this 50 MW plant is successfully commissioned, its capacity will be increased to 200 MW. As per a study conducted by Atlantis Resource Corporation and the state government two years ago, the Gulf of Kutch has a total potential of 300 MW. The biggest operating tidal station in the world, La Rance in France, generates 240 MW.

According to the estimates of the Indian government, the country has a potential of 8,000 MW of tidal energy. This includes about 7,000 MW in the Gulf of Cambay in Gujarat, 1,200 MW in the Gulf of Kutch and 100 MW in the Gangetic delta in the Sunderbans region of West Bengal.

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Philosophia Naturalis 7 is coming up

It will be up Thursday, March 1, to be more precise, at Geek Counterpoint. But you dont have a lot of time to get your suggestions in – they need to be in to the editor by Monday, February 26. You can send them to the editor as described here, or email them to carnival AT scienceandreason.net.

Do it now. Youll be glad you did.

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NREL Report Counts Up Solar Power Land Use Needs

IEEE Spectrum has an update on the land required for solar power plants - Report Counts Up Solar Power Land Use Needs.

The report used land use data from 72 percent of all large solar plants installed in the U.S., and found that the total area requirements for a photovoltaic (PV) plant between 1 and 20 megawatt capacity is 8.3 acres per MW. For larger PV plants, the total area needed is 7.9 acres per MW, while concentrating solar power plants (CSP) need 10 acres per MW. When weighted by generation rather than capacity, the larger PV plants (3.4 acres per gigawatt-hour per year) and CSP plants (3.5 acres/GWh/year) do a bit better than smaller PV plants (4.1 acres/GWh/year).

This isnt the first time NREL has looked at solar land use, though it is the first time they used a whole lot of actual power plants to figure out the numbers. In the past, they estimated that to power all of the U.S. with solar power, it would require 0.6 percent of all the area in the country.

The new report says that a PV plant capable of powering 1 000 homes needs 32 acres. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are around 115 million occupied and fully used homes in the country. If we just scale up linearly (which is not, of course, how this would actually work), that means 3.68 million acres to power all of them. Thats equivalent to 5 750 square miles, or around 0.1 percent of all the land the US has to offer.

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Ausgrid smartening up the distribution network

Australian IT News has a look at a smart grid project within AusGrid, increasing the level of data available about the distribution network - Ausgrid zeroes in on network faults.

Energy utility AusGrid has deployed monitoring devices in 2300 street-level cabinets in an ongoing effort to gain a more granular visibility of its electricity distribution network.

The utility had previously announced it would roll out the PowerSense devices in 12,000 of its 30,000 street-level power distribution boxes, coupled with a back-end data analysis system supplied by IBM.

The IBM system was funded as part of the Federal Government’s $100 million ‘Smart Grids, Smart Cities’ program, in which Ausgrid - formerly EnergyAustralia - has been trialling smart grid hardware, meters and applications at select areas in Sydney, the Hunter Valley region and Newcastle.

Ausgrid managing director George Maltabarow told iTnews that the newly deployed sensors would measure voltage and current between Ausgrid’s high voltage (11,000V) major zone substations and its street-level distribution units, where the current is converted into the 240V current used in households.

He said the sensors indicated whether there was any service interruptions on that street and what loads the equipment were carrying.

“The system has already proved itself in emergency situations,” he said. “We have already had major failures and used the system to prioritise and optimise where in the network we put generators in to provide supply.”

Diagnostic data was transmitted over a 3G network to larger substations, and then to the utilitys central IT systems for monitoring and analysis over a fibre network.

Maltabarow said Ausgrid’s SCADA system had previously only provided visibility into the high voltage segment of the network. “Without this technology, we don’t know what’s going on in the [lower-voltage] distribution network,” he said.

The project was designed to deliver second-by-second analysis of faults in the utility’s electricity grid, with the same level of information previously only available to the company on an annual basis. ...

Once AusGrid has better data on its distribution network, the power utility will use a custom 4G network using a mixture of WiMAX and LTE technologies over spectrum leased from vividwireless to connect street-level distribution units to smart meters installed in residential premises.

The meters would optimise transmission and address service outages right down to the level of the individual customer. It would also allow customers to monitor their own energy usage at a house level and with individual devices, allowing room for potential customer rebates to incentivise energy consumption.

Maltabarow said AusGrid has identified 144 sites for antennae builds for a 4G network to complement these meters, 60 of which are already under construction.

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